How the Democrats Held Majority in the Oregon House

The Democratic candidates for the Oregon House won by small margins in 6 races.  If they had lost those races, the Republicans would have a majority in the Oregon House.  Their total vote margin in those 6 races ended up at 4,159, as more votes for Democrats came in late.  The margins were:

1202 votes in HD 7
187 votes in HD 40
631 votes in HD 48
887 votes in HD 49
840 votes in HD 50
412 votes in HD 53

All those Democratic candidates were cross-nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon (IPO) and all displayed "Democratic, Independent" next to their names on the ballots.

IPO voter registrations in those districts are:

2557 in HD 7
2797 in HD 40
1795 in HD 48
1902 in HD 49
2059 in HD 50
3408 in HD 53

NAV registration in those districts is about 5-7 times higher than IPO registration.

IPO sent 4-page tabloids promoting IPO candidates to around 8000 voters in each of 18 House districts.

IPO cross-nominated 33 Democrats and 1 Republican seeking House seats (the Republican, Alistair Firmin, lost by 36%) .  In choosing candidates, IPO excluded election deniers, climate change deniers, and campaign finance reform opponents.

Oregon Party Registration 1950 - May 2022

  

The NAV/other category includes about 142,000 members of the Independent Party of Oregon and about 45,000 members of other Oregon minor parties (Constitution, Libertarian, Pacific Green, Progressive, Working Families).

Thanks to John Horvick of DSM Research for the chart.

Oregon’s unaffiliated voters: more partisan than you might think

Oregon’s unaffiliated voters: more partisan than you might think

They’re the biggest voter bloc but might not much shift the outcomes of November’s elections 

Randy Stapilus of Oregon Capital Chronicle
September 5, 2022

If Oregon’s registered Democrats vote Democratic in this November’s general election, and the Republicans vote Republican, those numbers alone won’t come close to settling the deal. 

A big reason: The largest group of voters in Oregon are the NAVs – those who register as “nonaffiliated.” 

(Disclosure: I’m one of them.)

But what does that mean for the outcome of the general election in another couple of months?

If you dive into the numbers – which is where elections are won and lost – you find fewer answers than you might first think. 

The NAV move to the most-numerous ranking came just this year, but it’s not a dramatic or sweeping development. Today – that is, according to the August voter registration figures compiled by the Secretary of State’s office – nonaffiliates comprised 34.4% of all voters, compared with Democrats at 34.2% and Republicans at 24.7%; the Independent Party came in at 4.7%. (You’ll notice the Democratic and NAV numbers still are close.)